Arguments For and Against Personality Predictors

Arguments For and Against Personality Predictors Arguments in favour Anyone seeking to measure personality has an abundance of useful psychometric instruments at their disposal, include the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) (e.g. Archer, 2005), the Weschler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC) (Watkins et al, 1997), the Myers Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) (Myers McCauley, 1985; McCrae Costa, 1989), and the, NEO Personality Inventory (revised) (Costa McCrae, 1992), and the Thematic Apperception Test (TAT) (Cramer, 1996), just to mention a few. Thus it should be simple matter to generate a reliable and valid set of scores, which can then be used to make various predictions about future behaviour. Studies have shown that the more established personality tests have acceptable levels of reliability (i.e. they measure personality consistently, both in terms of stability over time/across situations, and internally), and validity (they seem to measure personality, rather than some other psychological feature) (e.g. Costa McCrae, 1992; Wa tkins et al, 1997). Indeed, use of some of these measures is so widespread that they have become a standard part of psychological assessments in health care and recruitment, marriage counselling, and other fields (Davey, 2004; Myers, 2007). The data obtained can for example be used to make a prediction about the success of a marriage, professional abilities of a candidate for a job, or medical outcomes. For example, the MMPI is regularly used to make determinations about future behavioural problems in psychiatric patients (Arbisi et al, 2002). The NEO Personality Inventory and Myers Briggs Type Indicator have been fund to be particularly useful at predicting future behaviour. For example Moutafi et al (2003) asked 900 people to complete various psychological tests as part of an exercise conducted by a business consulting company. These tests included the MBTI and the revised version of the NEO Personality Inventory. Multiple regression analysis showed that various personality scales contained in both personality inventories reliably predict multiple dimensions of intelligence, at the 5% level of significance (Howitt Cramer, 2005). Clearly, the availability of tried and tested measurement tools suggests that it personality can be measured reasonably accurately, and hence used as the basis for making predictions. Another argument concerns the dispositional nature of personality traits. Personality has long been conceptualised as a stable and enduring feature that once developed does not change much during a person’s lifetime (Allport, 1937; Ryckman, 2004). This stability means it is possible to formulate a clear idea about the nature of a person’s personality (e.g. using a personality test) (Myers, 2007). This idea, once formed, can then be used to make predictions. To better appreciate this argument consider more volatile psychological characteristic like stress or coping (Janis, 1986). A persons stress levels can fluctuate widely over any given period of time. For example, an individual may experience high stress levels when the go to work during the day, but then feel relaxed once they return home. Similarly an individual may become highly agitated when flying in an aircraft and then subsequently experience little or no stress once they are back on the ground. Given the volat ility of stress levels it may be rather difficult for a researcher to conduct an overall and accurate assessment of a person’s anxiety. By contrast, personality shows sufficient continuity to enable a researcher develop a reliable personality profile (Engler, 2006) for any one individual. The accuracy of personality measurement is facilitated by the availability of suitable statistical tools, notably factor analysis (Tabachnick Fidell, 1996; Field, 2000). Factor analysis is a statistical method that allows one to condense a large amount of data into a small number of more manageable dimensions. In particular, a persons’ responses to a large number of items in an inventory can be reduced to a small number of basic dimensions that encapsulate the individuals’ personality. This is important given that personality is a multidimensional construct that can be described with thousands of words, phrases, and sentences, in the English language (Livesley Jackson, 1986). Consequently, personality theorists have routinely used this test to identify the basic dimensions of personality, such Goldberg’s (1993) ‘Big Five’ personality themes – agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, extraversion, and openness to experience. It is well known that renowned psychologist Hans Eysenck (Haggbloom, 2002) was one of those to first grasp the utility of factor analysis for developing accurate measures of personality. He subjected a large number of personality items to factor analyses, over several decades, yielding several dimensions: a proclivity to experience negative feelings, which he called neuroticism; an interest in social activity, labelled extraversion; and later a susceptibility to mental illness (e.g. schizophrenia), named psychoticism. These dimensions have been used to make predictions about a wide variety of behaviours, in many different situations (e.g. see review by Riggio Riggio, 2002). Furthermore, a person’s personality is a significant determinant of their behaviour in many different situations (Ryckman, 2004; Myers, 2007). This is a scientific fact, as demonstrated by the large number of studies that have used personality measures as the basis for determining various aspects of human behaviour under disparate conditions (McCrae Costa, 1990). For example, studies have shown how a defensive, unreceptive, or evasive personality can lead audiences to reject health warnings issued on a variety of topics and in a multiplicity of situations (see review by Eagly Chaiken, 1993). Empirical studies show that personality scores predict a significant amount of the variance in various behavioural scores, with the influence of chance factors falling below the five percent level (e.g. Moutafi et al, 2003). For this reason psychologists have spent a considerable amount of time and effort studying this construct. Once an accurate measurement of a persons personality have been obtained it should be fairly simple to make a significant prediction about their current or future behaviour in any given situation, using analytic procedures such as multiple regression analysis. Arguments against Psychologists cannot agree on the proper definition of personality, let alone measure it accurately and make reliable predictions. Open any relevant psychology textbook and one is confronted with several different theoretical accounts of precisely what personality means (e.g. Davey, 2004; Myers, 2007). For example, the legendary Sigmund Freud conceptualises personality as a multidimensional construct (incorporating the id, ego, and superego) that transcends the conscious, preconscious, and subconscious, and is driven by unconscious emotional problems. By contrast behaviourists, such as Burrhus Skinner, view personality as learned behaviours shaped by reinforcement and conditioning. Trait theorists like Gordon Allport conceptualise personality as stable behavioural characteristics that manifest across different situations. Thus, psychologists are far from reaching a consensus. Therefore, the idea that personality can be measured accurately is nonsensical. How can one measure a phenome non that isn’t clearly defined? Until psychologists can agree on a universal definition of personality, accurate measurement will remain an unattainable dream. At the beginning of this essay I provided a list of measurement tools for assessing personality, for example the MMPI, MBTI, and NEO personality inventory. While these instruments do appear to have some accuracy, their psychometric properties are continually the subject of doubt and criticism (e.g. McCrae Costa, 1989; Watkins et al, 1997). Reliability coefficients, while good, aren’t often high enough, and validity tests are rarely conclusive (Arbisi et al, 2002). Given these problems in the measurement of personality, accurate prediction of behaviour is bound to be impaired. For example, it is known fact that measurement error, resulting from the use unreliable and invalid measurement tools, can obscure significant relations between variables, resulting in a type II error (Baron Kenny, 1986; Howitt Cramer, 2 005). The idea that personality could be used to predict behaviour across situations rests on an important assumption – that how people respond in any given situation is necessarily predictable. The truth is that a person’s behaviour may sometimes be random with no apparent cause. This idea is echoes chaos theory (Gleick, 1987), a scientific school of thought that proposes that an event may be unpredictable due to various complexities or errors in its antecedent conditions. For example, long-term weather forecasting is often difficult because so many unstable climatic factors interact in such a complex fashion that minor changes in the nature of these interactions, and the elements which interact, could produce random, unpredictable, and escalating weather patterns. Chaos theory is applicable to the social sciences (Kiel Elliot, 1997). Different personality characteristics may interact (Howitt Cramer, 2005) in extremely complex fashions that any slight changes in the nature of these interactions or the variables involved can produce statistical and computational problems that reduce predictive power (Field, 2000). For example, any error in measurement of personality will be magnified to such an extent that it would obscure significant relationships between personality and behaviour. Baron and Kenny (1986) document this magnification in measurement error resulting from interactions between multiple variables. It means that behaviours produced by overly complex interactions between personality characteristics may to all intents and purposes be mathematically unpredictable, and hence appear random and sporadic, irrespective of the situation (Gleick, 1987). This is especially likely when trying to predict fleeting or eccentric behaviours (e.g. deliberate self-harm) often resulting from the complicated interplay between not just personality traits, but also other psychological phenomena, not to mention situational factors. There are others concerns. Psychologists can’t agree on whether personality traits are best conceptualised as stable entities that persist across situations or variable characteristics that change from one situation to the next (Davey, 2004). Which is it? Whatever view one subscribes to has measurement implications. Stable personality dispositions are generally more difficult to measure accurately, for various reasons (Leventhal et al, 1993). For example, people are less accurate at describing how they ‘generally’ behave, showing a memory bias towards positive rather than negative characteristics: in which case it would be more difficult to predict behaviour in any given situation, due to reliability and validity constraints. Finally, there is what social psychologists call the fundamental attribution error (Aronson, 1995). This refers to the tendency to overestimate the effect of personality on behaviour and underestimate the impact of the situation. Consider for example a person who has a fear of flying. They become highly stressed, agitated, and sometimes even panic stricken once a plane reaches cruising altitude. However, their anxiety disappears once the plane is back on the ground. The primary determinant of this individual’s emotional stress is situational – flying in a plane. Although personality may be important – for example, he/she may have a neurotic personality, making them more prone to stress (Riggio Riggio, 2002) – it would be a mistake to underestimate the effect of the situation (Janis, 1986; Engler, 2006). The essence of the fundamental attribution error here is thus: even if personality could be measured accurately, it may still fail to predict behaviour effectively to the extent that the behaviour in question is primarily a function of the situation rather than personality characteristics. Conclusion Can we predict a person’s response in any given situation if personality could be measured accurately? This essay presents arguments for and against. Regarding the former, psychometrically useful measures of personality abound, yielding reasonably reliable and valid personality scores that can be used for making behavioural predictions. Furthermore, analytic tools like factor analysis and the purportedly stable property of personality traits may both facilitate accurate measurement and further improve predictive power. Various empirical studies exist the support these arguments. However, there are several strong counterarguments that are difficult to refute. There is as yet in psychology no unanimous definition of personality. This raises serious questions about the psychometric attributes of any instrument that purports to measure personality. Indeed existing personality inventories are continually plagued by concerns about reliability and validity. Even without these psychom etric issues, a person’s behaviour is often heavily (if not entirely) determined by the prevailing situation, rather than their personality characteristics. Thus, even the most accurate personality measures will exhibit poor predictive power. In any case it is questionable whether human behaviour is always predictable. Certain responses may appear random, sporadic, and to all intents and purposes, unpredictable, due to analytic and methodological limits of existing science. In the midst of these constraining realities it is unlikely that personality traits could reliability predict behaviour across different situations References Allport, G. W. (1937). Personality: A Psychological Interpretation. New York: Holt,  Rinehart Winston. Arbisi, P., Ben-Porath Y. McNulty J (2002). A comparison of MMPI-2 validity in  African American and Caucasian psychiatric inpatients. Psychological  Assessment 14, pp.3-15. Archer, R.P. (2005). MMPI-A: Assessing Adolescent Psychopathology Lawrence  Erlbaum Associates Aronson, E. (1995) The Social Animal. New York: Freeman. Baron, R. M. Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator-mediator variable distinction in  social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical  considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51,  pp.1173‑1182. Costa, P.T., McCrae, R.R. (1992). Revised NEO personality inventory and NEO  five-factor inventory professional manual. Florida: Psychological Assessment  Resources, Inc. Cramer, P. (1996) Storytelling, Narrative, and the Thematic Apperception Test. New  York City: Guilford Press. Davey, G. (ed) (2004) Complete Psychology. London: Hodder Stoughton. Eagly, A. Chaiken, S (1993). The Psychology of Attitudes, Fort Worth, TX:  Harcourt Brace Jovanovich Engler, B. (2006). Personality Theories. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. Field, A. (2000) Discovering Statistics using SPSS for Windows: Advanced  techniques for the Beginner. London: Sage. Goldberg, L. R. (1993). The structure of phenotypic personality traits. American  Psychologist, 48, pp.26-34. Haggbloom, S.J. (2002). The 100 most eminent psychologists of the 20th century.  Review of General Psychology, 6, pp.139-152. Howitt, D. Cramer, D. (2005) Introduction to Research Methods in Psychology.  London: Pearson. Janis, I.L. (1986). Coping patterns among patients with life-threatening diseases.  Issues in Mental Health. Nursing, 7, pp.461–476. Kiel, L. D. Elliott, E.W. (eds) (1997). Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences:  Foundations Applications. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.. Livesley, W. J., Jackson, D. N. (1986). The internal consistency and factorial structure  of behaviors judged to be associated with DSM-III personality disorders.  American Journal of Psychiatry, 143, pp.1473-1474. Leventhal, E.A., Suls, J. Leventhal, H. (1993) Hierarchical analysis of coping:  Evidence from lifespan studies. In. H.W. Krohne (ed) Attention and Avoidance.  (pp.71-99) Seattle, Hogrefe and Huber Publishers. McCrae, R.R. Costa, P.T (1989) Reinterpreting the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator  From the Perspective of the Five-Factor Model of Personality. Journal of  Personality, 57, pp.17-40 Moutafi, J., Furnham, A., Crump, J. (2003). Demographic and personality  predictors of intelligence: A study using the Neo Personality Inventory and  Myers Briggs Type Indicator. European Journal of Personality, 17, pp.79–94. Myers, D. G. (2007). Psychology: Eighth edition in modules. New York: Worth  Publishers. Myers, I., McCauley, M.H. (1985), A Guide to the Development and Use of the  Myers Briggs Type Indicator, Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press. Ryckman, R. (2004). Theories of Personality. Belmont, CA: Thomson/Wadsworth. Riggio, H.R. Riggio, R.E. (2002) Emotional expressiveness, extraversion   neuroticism: a meta-analysis. Journal of Nonverbal Behavior, 26, pp.195-218. Tabachnick, B.G. Fidell, L.S. (1996). Using Multivariate Statistics. New York:  HarperCollins Watkins, M.W., Kush, J., Glutting, J.J. (1997). Discriminant and predictive validity  of the WISC-III ACID profile among children with learning disabilities.  Psychology in the Schools, 34, pp.309-319.

ufo cults Essay -- essays research papers fc

The First Encounter Assignment #2 â€Å"Are we alone in the universe?† Scientists have been trying to answer this question for many years. As of now there has not been any rock solid evidence to prove that there is life outside this world, but there is an overwhelming amount of people that believe that there is life. People only believe that there is life outside earth, they don’t know there is. It is hard to know that extra terrestrials exist unless a person has an encounter with one. A person named Claude Vorilhon (Rael) had an encounter with an alien and was told that we were all experiments to the aliens. The alien insisted for him to spread the word of the encounter and build an embassy for the coming of Elohim (the extra terrestrials). This encounter was the start of a UFO cult called Raelians. This cult has spread all over the world, predominately in Europe, Japan, and Quebec. In this UFO cult, Raelians, one can wonder what’s its beliefs are, what is it about the theology of this UFO cult that could draw so many followers and how some can not accept this religion. This religion started by one man went a long way and caused many controversies along the way. The theology of the Raelians was given from Vorilhon’s extra terrestrial mentor that he met with for six consecutive days for about an hour. There are eight main beliefs of the Raelians cult. The first one being that Elohim was the creator of humanity. The alien race was way more advanced than us and they mastered genetics and cell biology well enough to create DNA. They used earth to further studies because of its isolated environment. First plants were created then animals, then humans. â€Å"These human creations of the Elohim were first housed comfortably, being fed and sheltered with no obligations, in the laboratory of the Elohim. However, humans soon proved to possess an aggressive nature, and thus, the Elohim forced the humans out of the laboratory, which was poetically referred to in the Bible as the "Garden of Eden.† The second belief is the scientific translation of the bible. â€Å"Genesis 6:1-2 "And it came to pass, when men began to multiply on the face of the Earth and daughters were born unto them, that the Sons of Elohim saw the daughters of men, that they were fair; and they took them as wives..." Rael states this quote from the bible that it indicates an interbreeding of the... ... through to draw people to it. Many people have faith in a religion but once they lose it, either they lost a loved one and wonder why has God done this to them or how God allowed it to happen, they may turn to another religion such as Raelians where there is no God present but simply our creators of life, the Elohim. The Raelian religion is growing by the year drawing more and more followers but there are also many others who reject this religion because of their own beliefs. We will never know how we came to be in this world either by aliens or created by a God, either way the installment of faith has to be present to follow a religion. The choice of religion is based on the person’s beliefs. Bibliography Faye Whittermore. April 2001. â€Å"Raelians†. Available on-line: New Religious Movements: http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/rael.html Mother Site of the Raelian Religion. http://www.rael.org/ (Last visited 04/02/05). Rael. 1998. The Final Message. London: The Tagman Press. Rael. 1986. Let's Welcome our Fathers from Space. Japan: AOM Corporation. Shupe, Anson D. 1981. Six Perspectives on New Religions. New York: Edwin Mellen Press. 75-80.

Siva

As an MBA student you need to study Managerial Economics which is concerned with decisionmaking by managers. As you all are aware that the main Job of managers is decision making only. Before making a decision one has to take into accounts so many things. And here comes theimportance of managerial economics. Meaning of Economics: Economics can be called as social science dealing with economics problem and man's economic behavior. It deals with economic behavior of man in society in respect of consumption, production;distribution etc. conomics can be called as an unending science.There are almost as many definitions of economy as there are economists. We know that definition of subject is to be expected but at this stage it is more useful to set out few examples of the sort of issueswhich concerns professional economists. Example: For e. g. most of us want to lead an exciting life i. e. life full of excitements, adventures etc. butunluckily we do not always have the resources necessar y to do everything we want to do. Thereforechoices have to be made or in the words of economists individuals have to decide—–â€Å"how toallocate scarce resources in the most effective ways†.For this a body of economic principles and concepts has been developed to explain how people andalso business react in this situation. Economics provide optimum utilization of scarce resources to achieve the desired result. It providesthe basis for decision making. Economics can be studied under two heads:l) Micro Economics2) Macro EconomicsMicro Economics: It has been defined as that branch where the unit of study is an individual, firm or household. Itstudies how individual ake their choices about what to produce, how to produce, and for whom to produce, and what price to charge.It is also known as the price theory is the main source of conceptsand analytical tools for managerial decision making. Various micro-economic concepts such as demand, supply, elasticity of demand and supply, marginalcost, various market forms, etc. are of great significance to managerial economics. 1 Macro Economics: It's not only individuals and forms who are faced with having to make choices. Governments facemany such problems. For e. g. How much to spend on healthHow uch to spend on servicesHow much should go in to providing social security benefits.This is the same type of problem facing all of us in our daily lives but in different scales. lt studies the economics as a whole. It is aggregative in character and takes the entire economic as aunit of study. Macro economics helps in the area of forecasting. It includes National Income,aggregate consumption, investments, employment etc. Meaning of managerial economics: It is another branch in the science of economics. Sometimes it is interchangeably used with businesseconomics. Managerial economic is concerned with decision making at the level of firm.It has beendescribed as an economics applied to decision economic theory a nd managerial practices. lt is defined as application of economic theory and methodology to decision making process by themanagement of the business firms. In it economic theories and concepts are used to solve practical business problem. It lies on the borderline of economic and management. It helps in decision makingunder uncertainty and improves effectiveness of the organization. The basic purpose of managerial economic is to show how economic nalysis can be used informulating business plans.Definitions of managerial economics: In the words of Mc Nair and Merriam,† Managerial Economics consists of use of economic modes of thought to analyze business situation†. According to Spencer and Seigelman†Ã¢â‚¬ it is defined as the integration of economic theory with business practice for the purpose of facilitating decision making and forward planning by themanagement†. Economic provides optimum utilization of scarce resource to achieve the desired result.

Of Mice and Men Questions for Discussion

Of Mice and Men is a famous and controversial novel written by American author and Nobel Literature Laureate John Steinbeck. In his writing, Steinbeck routinely championed poor and oppressed workers, detailing the harsh conditions they were forced to endure in bleak and often graphic detail. His keen perception of and compassion for those who—whether by choice or circumstance—lived outside the strictures of society are qualities that made him one of the most revered writers of the 20th century. An Uneasy History At the time of its publication, Of Mice and Men forced Americans to look at a dark underside of then-current culture and the unpleasant truths of class disparity that many preferred simply to ignore. While on one level, the book is a testament to the nature of true friendship in the face of staggering adversity, ultimately, it is a tragic tale of outsiders not necessarily seeking to fit in, but merely to survive. Due to its use of profane language and dark themes such as murder, mental disability, prejudice, sexuality, and euthanasia, the book has landed on banned books lists more than once and has been removed from high school curriculums and libraries. Not surprisingly, thanks to its disturbing content and the authors provocative purpose of shining light on double standards and uninformed retribution, Of Mice and Men elicits a wide variety of opinions and interpretations, which makes it a challenging and worthwhile novel to discuss and debate. Here are some questions that will get the conversation rolling. Starting From the Top: What work of literature is Steinbeck referencing with the books title and why do you think he chose it?   Themes and Symbols: What is the central purpose of the story?What are other themes in the story? How do they relate to the plot and characters?  Can you think of any symbols that represent one of the themes you just discussed?  How does the setting add to the story? Could the story have taken place anywhere else?In several of Steinbecks novels, including The Grapes of Wrath and Of Mice and Men, The Great Depression has been likened to a character in and of itself. How important to the story are the times in which it was set?What types of conflicts occur in Of Mice and Men? Are the conflicts  physical, intellectual, or emotional? Lets Talk About The Characters: Are George and Lenny consistent in their actions?Are they fully developed characters?  From the woman in the velvet dress to Curleys wife, female characters play a large part in shaping Lennie and Georges destiny. What is the role of women in the text? Why do you think Steinbeck did not give his female characters names?How does John Steinbeck reveal character in  the novel? What Are Your Opinions? Would you recommend this novel to a friend?  Do you think the book should be censored or banned?  Do you find the characters likable?  Can you identify with any of them?Do you think the book accurately depicts what life was like in Depression-era America?Do you think the book still relevant today? If so, why?Can you think of any current issues that are similar to those in the book?Does the story end the way you expected? How? Why?